Notes · 18 June 2026
Cloud will be a $2.4T market by 2030.
Enthusiasts will drive demand starting in 2027.
Shovon HasanFounder & CEO
- Goldman Sachs forecasts Cloud TAM will grow to $2 trillion by 2030, up from $723B in 2025. We find $360B of TAM by 2030, driven by latent demand from enthusiasts beginning in 2027.
- Guardian reduces the cost and complexity of running a software company. By 2030, 10% of college-educated Americans will run a personal software company — a new generation of small business owners, a TAM of ~$360 billion.
- Compute providers, like Latitude et al., are poised to capture the lion's share of enthusiast demand. A $360B opportunity over the next 4 years.
SEATTLE, WA — Today, Guardian Intelligence LLC announces its forecast that direct-to-consumer bare metal hosting becomes a trillion-dollar market by 2030, as coding agents turn software creation from an enterprise discipline into a consumer one. When everyone runs a personal software company, the premium layer of that demand resolves to dedicated hardware.
The coding agent will reshape economies into a ~$7 trillion market by 2040 — the scale of today's mobile economy — and become as essential to daily life as owning a car. Bare metal hardware will be the premium tier, analogous to a flagship phone.
Standard Projection · 2030$2T
Guardian Projection · 2030$2.4T
37.7%
READ: A letter from the founder: The Coding Agent is the Next Smartphone